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<channel>
	<title>Explananda &#187; Follies of the occupation</title>
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		<title>Recently read</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2008/07/16/recently-read-8/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2008/07/16/recently-read-8/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2008 01:19:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Books]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=2112</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rory Stewart. Prince of the Marshes: And Other Occupational Hazards of a Year in Iraq &#8220;Those hopeless clods, blundering into Iraq without knowing a damn thing about it. They botched an occupation which might otherwise have gone smoothly. Imagine if individuals of character and integrity, with a real understanding of the West&#8217;s colonialist history in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Rory Stewart.  <em>Prince of the Marshes: And Other Occupational Hazards of a Year in Iraq</em></strong></p>
<p>&#8220;Those hopeless clods, blundering into Iraq without knowing a damn thing about it.  They botched an occupation which might otherwise have gone smoothly.  Imagine if individuals of character and integrity, with a real understanding of the West&#8217;s colonialist history in Iraq, an understanding of Muslim sensibilities, and a bit of bureaucratic savvy to boot, had been a part of the occupation.&#8221;</p>
<p>Except that, of course, the incompetence of the upper management in Iraq notwithstanding, there were many people of real ability, depth and nerve involved in that adventure.  Rory Stewart was one of them, and he served as deputy governor of Amarah and then Nasiriyah, both in the South of Iraq.  He is also a writer of real ability.  He has written a book about his experiences, the upshot of which is bleak for anyone inclined to lean heavily on the incompetence defense for the disasters of the occupation.  For he seems to have gone at the work of reconstruction and occupation with great energy, skill and determination, and he left with virtually nothing to show for it.  <em>Prince of the Marshes</em> tells his story, and tells it well. </p>
<p><strong>Vera Brittain. <em>Testament of Youth: An Autobiographical Study of the Years 1900-1925</em></strong></p>
<p>Vera Brittain lost her young fiance in World War I, and then two dear friends, and finally her brother.  In 1915, she left Oxford to work as a nurse, caring for wounded soldiers, first in Britain, then Malta, and finally France.  Her account of the war, and its shattering effects on her entire generation, is powerful, bitter, and moving.  At the close of the war, she resumed her studies at Oxford, and on graduating moved on to a career as a novelist, journalist, and activist for internationalism and feminism.  The whole tale is engaging, and Brittain writes persuasively and incisively about her causes, especially feminism.  But it is the four deaths, and the struggle that follows to accept and understand the senseless waste of talent and energy they represented, that are so moving, and that form the emotional core of the story.</p>
<p>This is a wonderful book, tying together the personal and the political together in way that illuminates each.  I got it out of the library after reading about it <a href="http://thegspot.typepad.com/blog/2008/06/the-book-that-t.html">here</a>.  I&#8217;m grateful for the recommendation.</p>
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		<title>One man&#8217;s modus ponens&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2008/05/05/one-mans-modus-ponens/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2008/05/05/one-mans-modus-ponens/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2008 14:07:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Paul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Odds and ends]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=2288</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8230;is another man&#8217;s modus tollens. I really wanted to read this review, but after reading its first sentence, I realized that logic prevents me from doing so1: If you are interested enough in epistemology to be reading this review, then you must read the marvelous book being reviewed. &#8212; 1. Chris, this post is meant [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230;is another man&#8217;s modus tollens.</p>
<p>I really wanted to read <a href="http://ndpr.nd.edu/review.cfm?id=13028">this</a> review, but after reading its first sentence, I realized that logic prevents me from doing so<sup>1</sup>:</p>
<blockquote><p>If you are interested enough in epistemology to be reading this review, then you must read the marvelous book being reviewed.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>&#8212;<br />
1. Chris, this post is meant to make us philosophy types chuckle. No need to point out all the ways in which logic does in fact allow me to read the review and not the book. Just go quietly back to preventing future deaths of little kittens, OK?</p>
<p>(Thanks to noz in comments for helping me figure out how to make makeshift footnotes.)</p>
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		<title>Blackwater</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2007/09/18/blackwater/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2007/09/18/blackwater/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Sep 2007 17:43:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=2121</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wonder how the Iraqi government&#8217;s move to kick Blackwater security contractors out of the country is going to play out. My (rather hazy) impression is that while Blackwater contractors in Iraq only number about a 1,000 (nobody seems to know for sure, but that&#8217;s the number I&#8217;ve seen floating around), they do stuff that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder how the Iraqi government&#8217;s move to kick Blackwater security contractors out of the country is going to play out.  My (rather hazy) impression is that while Blackwater contractors in Iraq only number about a 1,000 (nobody seems to know for sure, but that&#8217;s the number I&#8217;ve seen floating around), they do stuff that the U.S. considers pretty important.  It therefore seems a bit much to believe that they&#8217;re currently packing up and preparing to go home, whatever the Iraqi government thinks it can order them to do.  </p>
<p>My guess: The U.S. leans hard on the Iraqi government over the next little bit and a (secret, of course) &#8220;compromise&#8221; is reached according to which Blackwater will lease the very same contractors to another outfit, or will set up a dummy company employing the same contractors.  This way everyone can claim that &#8220;Blackwater&#8221; no longer has contractors in the country, when in fact it does.  </p>
<p>UPDATE: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2174353,00.html">Wrong!</a>  I&#8217;m surprised at how quickly and publicly the Iraqi government capitulated.  Wow.  </p>
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		<title>Solidarity</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2007/07/27/solidarity/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2007/07/27/solidarity/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2007 18:57:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The pro-war Left]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=2087</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Norm writes: A question I have put several times and have not heard an answer to is this: why did not more people who felt they couldn&#8217;t support the war in Iraq also not oppose it &#8211; in view of the plain fact that opposition meant leaving Saddam&#8217;s regime in power, free to continue torturing [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Norm <a href="http://normblog.typepad.com/normblog/2007/07/johann---saved.html">writes</a>:<br />
<blockquote>A question I have put several times and have not heard an answer to is this: why did not more people who felt they couldn&#8217;t support the war in Iraq also not oppose it &#8211; in view of the plain fact that opposition meant leaving Saddam&#8217;s regime in power, free to continue torturing and murdering Iraqis? OK, they judged the consequences of the war would be worse than the consequences of leaving Saddam in power. But too many of them in doing that, even without taking the side of Saddam&#8217;s regime or of the subsequent Iraqi &#8216;resistance&#8217;, were rather more focused and vehement in their animus against the war effort and those prosecuting it than they were in expressing solidarity with democratic forces in Iraq or expressing anything much at all about the enemies of democracy there.</p></blockquote>
<p>I don&#8217;t see what&#8217;s wrong with the answer he supplies here himself, which, contrary to what he suggests, he must have heard all over the place, if he was listening: that we opposed the war because we thought even worse things would come of it than Saddam Hussein in power &#8211; something we were right about, as Norm now accepts.  As for the rest of it, I think we&#8217;re back to the argument from silence again.  But here&#8217;s how it seems to me to work: Norm can construe rhetorical emphasis in opponents of the war in ways that are deeply unflattering to them, but when fairly obvious and problematic issues of rhetorical emphasis are <a href="http://www.explananda.com/?p=1528">pointed out</a> in his own work, it&#8217;s <a href="http://normblog.typepad.com/normblog/2006/10/bobby_blogness_.html">not supposed to be an issue worth worrying about</a>.</p>
<p>Anyway, at this point we&#8217;ve whittled down the charge against the bulk of the anti-war types to the fact that we put too much emphasis on our criticisms of the war and not enough on expressing solidarity with Iraqis.  Prior to the war, I think the following suffices: we had our hands full.  We were trying to stop a disaster, and although it&#8217;s hardly the most pressing issue, it&#8217;s hard not to be ticked off at people who made a silly game of pretending that trying to avert this disaster meant we had some sort of defective moral sensibilities.  </p>
<p>The more important point is that after the war, the criticisms of corruption in the so-called reconstruction <em>were</em> in significant part expressions of solidarity with Iraqis.  Criticisms of long-term basing ambitions in Iraq <em>were</em> also in significant part expressions of solidarity with Iraqis.  So too were criticisms of many of the other decisions, large and small, that forced Iraqis into a bitter choice between collaboration with a corrupt neo-colonialist invading force with long-term designs on the country and a wretched sectarian insurgency.  And, again, Norm had <em>very</em> little to say about <em>these</em> aspects of the occupation (beyond the issue of torture), perhaps distracted by the moral idiocy of the critics of the war, which I suppose is just one more reason to think them naughty.  </p>
<p>I&#8217;m pretty sure the occupation was doomed anyway, and that no amount of complaining from critics could have saved it.  But as long as there was hope we really did need as much focussed criticism as possible of precisely those aspects of the occupation that exacerbated a bad situation.  Ritualistic denunciations of the insurgency &#8211; people who were widely understood to be wicked, who weren&#8217;t listening anyway, and who weren&#8217;t accountable to voters &#8211; just weren&#8217;t a priority.  </p>
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		<title>Arrowhead Ripper</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2007/06/20/arrowhead-ripper/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2007/06/20/arrowhead-ripper/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jun 2007 15:49:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Paul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=2058</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Remember this: [In Fallujah] The U.S. military turned back fleeing males [who had tested negative for explosive residue on their hands (NYT 11/13/04)] into a war zone ; it used chemical weapons (phosphorus) in the fighting; it preceded the invasion with weeks of fairly indiscriminate heavy bombing in civilian areas; and so on. Well, here [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Remember <a href="http://www.explananda.com/archives/000820.html" target= "blank" >this</a>:<br />
<blockquote>[In Fallujah] The U.S. military turned back fleeing males [who had tested negative for explosive residue on their hands (NYT 11/13/04)] into a war zone ; it used chemical weapons (phosphorus) in the fighting; it preceded the invasion with weeks of fairly indiscriminate heavy bombing in civilian areas; and so on.</p></blockquote>
<p>Well, here we go again. Meet &#8220;Operation Arrowhead Ripper&#8221;. From <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/20/world/middleeast/20military.html?_r=1&#038;oref=slogin&#038;ref=todayspaper&#038;pagewanted=print" target="blank">today&#8217;s NYT</a>:<br />
<blockquote>By the time dawn broke on Tuesday, the insurgent sanctuary in western Baquba had been cordoned off. Then, the American forces established footholds on the periphery of the section and slowly pressed in.<b> ï¿½Rather than let the problem export to some other place and then have to fight them again, my goal is to isolate this thing and cordon it off,ï¿½</b> said Col. Steve Townsend, the commander of the Third Stryker Brigade Combat Team, Second Infantry Division.<br />
&#8230;<br />
<b>Unlike Falluja, where most of the population fled in advance of the battle, thousands of civilians remain in the western section of the city.</b></p>
<p>American helicopters dropped leaflets last night urging the residents to stay in their homes. The hope was to keep civilians off the streets while American forces began to close in on the insurgents. The appeal appeared to have little effect, though, as <b>large groups of civilians mingled on the streets Tuesday and some students even sought to go to the local university.</b></p>
<p>The presence of so many civilians on an urban battlefield affords the operatives from Al Qaeda another possible means to elude their American pursuers. If the insurgents do not manage to sneak out, some may hide their weapons and try to blend with the cityï¿½s residents.</p>
<p>To frustrate such plans, <b>the Americans intend to take fingerprints and other biometric data from every resident who seems to be a potential fighter </b>after they and Iraqi forces have gained control of the western side of the city. The <b>Americans will also test for the presence of explosive material on suspectsï¿½ hands.</b></p>
<p>Officers are hoping that local residents and even former insurgents who have split with Al Qaeda may quietly help the American troops pick out insurgents. American troops have already begun to work with more than 100 Iraqis on the eastern side of the city ï¿½ a group American soldiers have nicknamed the ï¿½Kit Carson scouts.ï¿½ To try to prevent insurgents from escaping, American commanders are also stepping up their reconnaissance efforts.</p></blockquote>
<p>With the little media scrutiny that the atrocious Fallujah offensive garnered, and with US generals and political elites eager to have something to hang their hat on come September, you can bet that Operation Arrowhead Ripper is not going to be a pretty sight. Still, September will be an extremely important time for anti-war arguments. Powerful arguments will be made on the basis of the indiscriminate excesses of what was &#8220;necessary&#8221; in Fallujah in 2004, and still &#8220;necessary&#8221; in Baquba in 2007. Let&#8217;s hope the reporting makes such arguments possible. We know the US Military will do their part.</p>
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		<title>There&#8217;s an allegory in here somewhere</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2007/02/01/theres-an-allegory-in-here-somewhere/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2007/02/01/theres-an-allegory-in-here-somewhere/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Feb 2007 04:55:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Anne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1972</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Paul Wolfowitz visits mosque, respectfully removes shoes, is revealed to have holes in his socks. Lack of foresight, is what I&#8217;m saying here. Certain problems are foreseeable, and if you plan properly you can avoid them, is what I&#8217;m saying.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul Wolfowitz visits mosque, respectfully removes shoes, is revealed to have <a href="http://www.neatorama.com/2007/01/31/head-of-world-bank-wears-socks-with-giant-holes/">holes in his socks</a>. Lack of foresight, is what I&#8217;m saying here. Certain problems are foreseeable, and if you plan properly you can avoid them, is what I&#8217;m saying.</p>
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		<title>Prediction: The fate of Iraq&#8217;s new oil law</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2007/01/18/prediction-the-fate-of-iraqs-new-oil-law/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2007/01/18/prediction-the-fate-of-iraqs-new-oil-law/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jan 2007 22:22:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1957</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I should make more predictions: they&#8217;re good at forcing me to think through an issue, and they&#8217;re nice and testable, which gives me a chance to look back later on and weep or cheer, as the case may be. On the soon-to-come second incarnation of this blog, I will have a wildly expanded list of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I should make more predictions: they&#8217;re good at forcing me to think through an issue, and they&#8217;re nice and testable, which gives me a chance to look back later on and weep or cheer, as the case may be.  On the soon-to-come second incarnation of this blog, I will have a wildly expanded list of categories, including one for predictions, which will make it that much easier for my friends and foes to weep or cheer, as the case may be.</p>
<p>Anyway, let me make a prediction about Iraq&#8217;s <a href="http://www.tnr.com/blog/theplank?pid=72760">newly drafted oil law</a>.  The proposed law <i>might</i> make it through Iraq&#8217;s political process to become the law of the land, but it hardly matters: Renationalizing the Iraqi oil industry will become a test of will and credibility for Iraqi politicians for as long as it takes to renationalize the oil industry.  If I was an oil exec, I would be very reluctant to bet on this  law.  It doesn&#8217;t have a chance.</p>
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		<title>Two comments on the execution of Saddam Hussein</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/12/31/two-comments-on-the-execution-of-saddam-hussein/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/12/31/two-comments-on-the-execution-of-saddam-hussein/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 18:24:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1939</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. Dude, if you can fuck up the trial of Saddam Hussein &#8212; Saddam Hussein, the butcher of Baghdad, whose crimes are legion, and very well-documented &#8212; then there is really nothing on God&#8217;s green earth that you can&#8217;t fuck up. 2. While disappointed with many features of the trial, I applaud the Bush administration&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1.  Dude, if you can fuck up the trial of <i>Saddam Hussein</i> &#8212; Saddam Hussein, the butcher of Baghdad, whose crimes are legion, and <i>very</i> well-documented &#8212; then there is really nothing on God&#8217;s green earth that you can&#8217;t fuck up.  </p>
<p>2.  While disappointed with many features of the trial, I applaud the Bush administration&#8217;s vigorous defence of the principle that heads of state are legally responsible for actions they, and their underlings, take while in power.  Let&#8217;s see where that one takes us, shall we?</p>
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		<title>A Middle East Pony Conference</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/11/28/a-middle-east-pony-conference/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/11/28/a-middle-east-pony-conference/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 15:21:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1606</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Obviously Iran is up to a bit of monkey business in Iraq now, and I&#8217;m willing to believe that Syria is not being 100% helpful. Still, I never bought the hysterical versions of these claims, pushed most often on the right. The violence and chaos in Iraq seems mostly a mix of homegrown dysfunction and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obviously Iran is up to a bit of monkey business in Iraq now, and I&#8217;m willing to believe that Syria is not being 100% helpful.  Still, I never bought the hysterical versions of these claims, pushed most often on the right.  The violence and chaos in Iraq seems mostly a mix of homegrown dysfunction and foreign occupation, into which have also stepped various foreign radical groups who are often fiercely opposed to both Syria and Iran.  That&#8217;s why I have so little faith in the idea that a regional conference with Iraq&#8217;s neighbours, in particular Syria and Iran, will help much.  They&#8217;re not really where the trouble begins, and they&#8217;re hardly likely to be able to end it.  I do hope that no one is seriously putting a lot of faith in the idea: it seems almost as desperate as staying the course.</p>
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		<title>Hard case</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/11/06/hard-case/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/11/06/hard-case/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Nov 2006 21:31:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1587</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m having a hard time making up my mind about the recent verdict in Saddam Hussein&#8217;s case. Although I&#8217;m an opponent of the death penalty, I can see that if anyone deserves it he does. On the other hand, I can see why a good case can be made for refusing to apply it even [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m having a hard time making up my mind about the recent verdict in Saddam Hussein&#8217;s case.  Although I&#8217;m an opponent of the death penalty, I can see that if anyone deserves it he does.  On the other hand, I can see why a good case can be made for refusing to apply it even here.  I can also see good reasons to have had the trial in Iraq, conducted by Iraqis, as well as good reasons to have had an international tribunal instead.  I can see good reasons for trying to prevent Saddam Hussein from grandstanding in court, and also good reasons for having as open a process as possible.  I could understand that a little earlier on one judge&#8217;s behaviour was inappropriate in ways that called into question his independence, but I was also unsettled at the manner in which he was removed.  I can see that the everyone wanted a trial that was quick and focused, but I also worry that the larger goals of the trial were undermined by that focus, since everyone knows that the Americans were afraid to include crimes in the indictment in which they might be complicit.  </p>
<p>I watched a video of Saddam Hussein in the court.  It was very nice to see him in that position, for all the flaws in the process.  All the same, if you&#8217;re going to go through all of that trouble, at such cost, to bring someone to justice, you want to do it properly.  Even allowing for the very difficult circumstances of the trial, I can&#8217;t help feeling that they really lost an opportunity to really show justice done in a comprehensive, honest, and open way.</p>
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		<title>The Gelb plan to partition Iraq</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/10/20/the-gelb-plan-to-partition-iraq/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/10/20/the-gelb-plan-to-partition-iraq/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Oct 2006 16:13:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1562</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Right, as I complained a long time ago. The very fact that this plan is being tossed around by Americans is frustrating. It isn&#8217;t their choice. It just isn&#8217;t. And even if it were the best solution for Iraq, it would be wrong and dangerous for the U.S. to play a crucial role in bringing [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.matthewyglesias.com/archives/2006/10/the_trouble_with_partition/">Right,</a> as I <a href="http://www.seewhy.blogspot.com/2003_11_23_seewhy_archive.html#106978889057135510">complained a long time ago.</a>  The very fact that this plan is being tossed around by Americans is frustrating.  It isn&#8217;t their choice.  It just isn&#8217;t.  And even if it were the best solution for Iraq, it would be wrong and dangerous for the U.S. to play a crucial role in bringing it about or in taking credit for it afterwards.</p>
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		<title>Blog, blog, metablog, Normblog</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/10/01/blog-blog-metablog-normblog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/10/01/blog-blog-metablog-normblog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Oct 2006 19:27:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The pro-war Left]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1528</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Update: Thanks to Norm for the link. I&#8217;ve put up a brief response here. Norm Geras responds to a critical post by Timothy Burke. I thought I&#8217;d say something (quick and partial) since I just recently posted something critical of Norm. When I first saw Burke&#8217;s post, I thought some of the points went a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Update: Thanks to Norm for the link.  I&#8217;ve put up a brief response <a href="http://www.explananda.com/archives/001738.html">here</a>.</p>
<p>Norm Geras <a href="http://normblog.typepad.com/normblog/2006/09/reflections_on_.html">responds</a> to a <a href="http://weblogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/?p=279">critical post</a> by Timothy Burke.  I thought I&#8217;d say something (quick and partial) since I just recently posted something critical of Norm.  When I first saw Burke&#8217;s post, I thought some of the points went a bit far; Norm points out a few of the places where it does so.<br />
<span id="more-1528"></span><br />
I do think, though, that someone who reads Norm carefully and over the long run, even in a generous spirit, will end up awfully puzzled about some of the silences on Norm&#8217;s blog.  For example, Norm points out correctly that he has <i>not</i> been at all silent about the issue of torture.  He&#8217;s against it, and he&#8217;s got the posts to prove it.  But, as far as I can remember, he declines to follow through with an explanation of what follows from that rejection.  Norm wrote in the aftermath of Abu Ghraib, for example, that Rumsfeld ought to resign.  He did not, and Bush did not fire him.  What then?  Norm does not say.  In other words, Bush pushes a plate of shit our way &#8211; I include myself, because for a time I supported the occupation &#8211; and we say, &#8220;But that&#8217;s shit,&#8221; and push it back, and Bush pushes it back silently across the table.  Do we eat it?  Do we eat it with protest?  Eat it for a limited time only?  What <i>follows</i> from our noble position on torture?  We are not told.  Instead we are told &#8211; told repeatedly &#8211; that a certain segment of the left has lost its sense of perspective.  But what <i>is</i> the proper perspective?  Absent <i>some</i> account of what the proper perspective is, the space including the alleged hysterics remains unspecified, and so the range of those criticized potentially quite vast.  I think this is what leads people to assume that Norm is conversationally implying something much worse than I think he in fact has in mind.</p>
<p>And what happens when Bush plunges the U.S. into a constitutional crisis by abandoning habeas corpus?  And by continuing the practice of extraordinary rendition &#8211; of, remember, innocent people along with the guilty?  At what point should all these things lead us to believe that the U.S. isn&#8217;t fit to wage a war with allegedly humanitarian goals?  Does the abandonment of habeas corpus lead to serious legal questions about other country&#8217;s efforts alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan?  It is perfectly fair to point out that some critics of Bush are hysterical, but unless repeatedly pointing this out is a prelude to some sort of account of what is a reasonable response to these horrors, people who care deeply about these matters do have a right to feel frustrated.  </p>
<p>And there are other gaps which I believe are genuinely puzzling to someone who reads Norm in good faith and with a generous spirit.  Beyond the exemplary response to Abu Ghraib, what of the character of the occupation?  Norm has written a great deal about unbalanced <i>responses</i> to the occupation, but almost nothing about what a balanced response would look like.  Again, how long and with what goals?  What about the evidence that many of the worst decisions in the early days were connected with further military ambitions in the region?  What about the promotion of proxies like Chalabi, with all its consequences, within Iraqi politics in the early days?  It is all very well to reply that Iraq was in a bad way prior to the occupation and that if we sat around waiting for a morally pure intervener we would wait forever.  But it is only the beginning of what needs to be said.  <i>How</i> low can we go?  And are the hysterics perhaps on to something?  He does not say.  But someone who reads Norm, and reads his criticisms of others for their silences and evasions will surely, at some point, begin to stamp his feet with impatience at the silence on these issues.  Norm wrote <i>nothing</i> on the second seige of Fallujah, with all its horrors.  And although I cannot square that with some of the harsher things he&#8217;s written about the silences of others, I do very much agree with him that ritual denunciations of every horror are unnecessary and can easily degrade into empty posturing.  But what a fairminded reader of Normblog may reasonably wonder is: <i>If</i> the second seige of Fallujah was a horror, what then?  What does it say about the occupation, its prospects, its moral legitimacy?  And, again, are the hysterics on to something?  </p>
<p>In the early months of the occupation as it became clear that the U.S. was going to be occupying Iraq with far fewer allies than many expected, Norm wrote a series of posts lamenting the shortsightedness (and worse) of the leaders who declined to assist the U.S.  Eventually the posts stopped.  Has Norm&#8217;s position changed?  I don&#8217;t know.  In the meantime, the evidence has become, I think, as solid as evidence can be that the position of those who refused to help the U.S. in Iraq was far more reasonable than Norm recognized at the time: Anyone helping with the occupation, was essentially helping an incredibly corrupt project into which they would have essentially no real input, and making themselves co-partners in a regime of massive detention, as well as torture.  Does this change Norm&#8217;s retrospective view of the reasonableness of the refusal to help the project?  He does not say. </p>
<p>At any rate, Norm is right to say that he&#8217;s engaged in the past with critics of the war, including me.  And no blogger is under an obligation to give an exhaustive accounting for his or her position.  But at a certain point surely more needs to be said if more continues to be said against those who reject the U.S.&#8217;s continuing position in Iraq.  At least, more needs to be said if we&#8217;re to have a reasonable debate about the subject.</p>
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		<title>Shitting and Pissing on Iraqis?</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/09/28/shitting-and-pissing-on-iraqis/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/09/28/shitting-and-pissing-on-iraqis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Sep 2006 14:34:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brad</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sorry, this is just too rich to continue my non-blogging ways: the shit and piss is finally starting to fall on those cursed Iraqis. Mission accomplished! (Nod to Kevin Drum.)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry, this is just too rich to continue my non-blogging ways: the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/27/AR2006092702134_pf.html">shit and piss</a> is finally starting to fall on those cursed Iraqis. Mission accomplished! (Nod to <a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009581.php">Kevin Drum<a>.)</p>
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		<title>On the Elasticity Theory of Imperial Ambition</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/09/18/on-the-elasticity-theory-of-imperial-ambition/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/09/18/on-the-elasticity-theory-of-imperial-ambition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Sep 2006 00:05:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Withdrawing from Iraq]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1519</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Matthew Yglesias has been doing yeoman&#8217;s work beating down various versions of the &#8220;Incompetence Dodge,&#8221; the idea that it was reasonable to support the Iraq War prior to its initiation because it was impossible to foresee how incredibly incompetently the Bush administration would handle the war. Here&#8217;s Andrew Sullivan, for example, taking up one aspect [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Matthew Yglesias has been doing yeoman&#8217;s work beating down various versions of the &#8220;Incompetence Dodge,&#8221; the idea that it was reasonable to support the Iraq War prior to its initiation because it was impossible to foresee how incredibly incompetently the Bush administration would handle the war.  Here&#8217;s Andrew Sullivan, for example, <a href="http://www.matthewyglesias.com/archives/2006/09/climbing_mount_improbable/">taking up one aspect of this view</a>:<br />
<blockquote>The more we find out about the spectacular recklessness of this administration&#8217;s conduct of the war the less persuasive it is that this operation was always doomed to failure. In my view, although the war was always going to be extremely difficult, it wasn&#8217;t necessarily doomed from the start. It was the administration&#8217;s relentless, politicized incompetence that doomed it.</p></blockquote>
<p>Now suppose that more troops had been sent into Baghdad, and imagine that it had been possible to keep them there.  Imagine also that these troops had been instructed to prevent the looting that plagued the country immediately after the war.  Imagine further that the Iraq army hadn&#8217;t been disbanded, the Sunnis alienated unnecessarily, and so on.  In other words, imagine that things had gone much better in the first year of occupation.  I submit that the U.S. would still be in trouble today, though Iraq itself might have been a bit better off.  An explanation for this is provided by the Elasticity Theory of Imperial Ambition, which, applied to today&#8217;s world, states that the imperial ambitions of the Bush administration will always expand to fill the available space.  If the first year in Iraq had gone better, the Bush administration&#8217;s ambitions for Iraq and the region would have been correspondingly grander, and the consequences just as, or even more, dire, once the backlash caught up to them.  The basic problem here is that more wars were in the offing, and very little in the way of real representation for the people being liberated.  The Grand Plan here is not one that would have ever worked, and the fact that the Bush administration stumbled on the first, rather than the second or third step, couldn&#8217;t change that.</p>
<p>The Elasticity Theory of Imperial Ambition explains why the Incompetence Dodge dodges nothing at all: Less incompetence in Iraq would have just entailed greater encouragement to mess things up later.</p>
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		<title>Bush on private military contractors</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/04/11/bush-on-private-military-contractors/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/04/11/bush-on-private-military-contractors/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2006 04:46:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. defense policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1411</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#8217;s a video of an exchange between President Bush and a student asking him a question about private military contractors in Iraq. It&#8217;s a decent question, and she asks it well, and awfully politely. She explains that she had managed to ask Rumsfeld a few months prior to the exchange with Bush what law governs [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.videosift.com/story.php?id=1285">Here&#8217;s</a> a video of an exchange between President Bush and a student asking him a question about private military contractors in Iraq.  It&#8217;s a decent question, and she asks it well, and awfully politely.  She explains that she had managed to ask Rumsfeld a few months prior to the exchange with Bush what law governs private military contractors in Iraq, given that the U.S. military&#8217;s own code doesn&#8217;t.  According to her, Rumsfeld&#8217;s answer was that &#8220;presumably&#8221; &#8211; I love that &#8220;presumably&#8221;; it&#8217;s just so Rummy that she must be quoting directly &#8211; Iraq&#8217;s own laws governed military contractors.  The questioner was concerned that this was obviously inadequate, since Iraq lacks the means to enforce those laws.  The result has been a lot of heavily armed men operating without any effective legal restraints in an extraordinarily stressful environment.  This has proven problematic (<a href="http://www.videosift.com/story.php?id=1284">e.g.</a>).</p>
<p>So anyone who follows the news in Iraq knows that that is a damn good question.  Shootings by contractors (many who have been killed working under incredibly dangerous conditions) seem to be a real grievance Iraqis have with the occupation.  The worries about military contractors in Iraq are also connected to the issue of the current American military transformation.  The position you take on these worries &#8211; whether you think they&#8217;re tractable or not &#8211; is bound to influence your views about the prudence of some of Rumsfeld&#8217;s controversial ideas about the modernization of the American military (though, of course, the use of military contractors pre-dates Rumsfeld).  Part of the transformation of the military has involved precisely this shift to an increasing reliance on military contractors to perform a wide range of duties that would formerly have been taken up by the military.</p>
<p>There are two ways of reading what follows the student&#8217;s question.  The optimistic reading is just that Bush is incredibly comfortable lying in public, and that he was doing so on this occasion.  <i>Of course</i> he knows that there&#8217;s a serious issue about the legal status of private military contractors, since there&#8217;s been quite a debate about this subject, and at some point Biden, or Rice or Powell before he left said something to make him aware that this was an issue.  So when Bush acts surprised by the question and completely stumped by it &#8211; when he really looks as if he&#8217;s never heard <i>anything</i> about this issue &#8211; it&#8217;s just an act.  </p>
<p>The pessimistic reading is that this really is the first that Bush has heard of the issue.  On this more terrifying reading Bush is actually unaware of an issue that is at once a) a significant source of resentment among Iraqis, poisoning good will essential to his project even further; b) a serious moral and legal issue arising from the occupation; and c) a necessary piece of information for judging the future direction of the American military.</p>
<p>Bush manages to splutter something about delegation, and then moves on to the next question.  I think his response nicely captures the basic problem with the &#8220;The President is a Moron but he Delegates Well&#8221; theory of Presidential Aptitude, a theory my father was always fond of applying to Reagan back in the day.  On the pessimistic reading, which I lean towards, Bush is so out of touch that he is both unable to delegate properly and unable to assess the results of his delegation.</p>
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		<slash:comments>8</slash:comments>
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		<title>Hearts and Minds, Hearts and Minds.</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2006/01/20/hearts-and-minds-hearts-and-minds/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2006/01/20/hearts-and-minds-hearts-and-minds/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2006 15:24:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Paul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1839</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jesus it&#8217;s bad there.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060119/NEWS/601190362/1002/NEWS01">Jesus it&#8217;s bad there</a>.</p>
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		<title>Seige of Husayba</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2005/11/06/seige-of-husayba/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2005/11/06/seige-of-husayba/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Nov 2005 17:16:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1774</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[NYT: The Americans found it difficult to spot the guerrillas, though they would occasionally see a black-clad figure sprinting through a house or down a street. Some officers called in airstrikes. Others ordered Abrams tanks to blast away with their main cannons. &#8220;I got bombs; he got bombs,&#8221; Colonel Davis said. &#8220;I got more bombs [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/international/middleeast/06iraq.html?pagewanted=print">NYT</a>:<br />
<blockquote>The Americans found it difficult to spot the guerrillas, though they would occasionally see a black-clad figure sprinting through a house or down a street. Some officers called in airstrikes. Others ordered Abrams tanks to blast away with their main cannons. &#8220;I got bombs; he got bombs,&#8221; Colonel Davis said. &#8220;I got more bombs than he got.&#8221;<br />
&#8230;<br />
Yet they also acknowledge that it is as hard as ever for the Americans to win widespread support among the people of Anbar. &#8220;It&#8217;s a very primal fight,&#8221; Colonel Davis said. &#8220;We don&#8217;t do a lot of hearts and minds out here because it&#8217;s irrelevant.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Henley says</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2005/09/05/henley-says/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2005/09/05/henley-says/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Sep 2005 00:13:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1291</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This: The diplomatic work of the next few months, from the Administration&#8217;s perspective, is to simultaneously convince the Sunni and Shiite leadership that a US presence is the only thing that will protect its communities from each other. To that end, a certain ï¿½enduring baseï¿½ (if you will) of distrust between the two communities is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://highclearing.com/index.php/archives/2005/09/05/4601">This</a>:<br />
<blockquote>The diplomatic work of the next few months, from the Administration&#8217;s perspective, is to simultaneously convince the Sunni and Shiite leadership that a US presence is the only thing that will protect its communities from each other. To that end, a certain ï¿½enduring baseï¿½ (if you will) of distrust between the two communities is a boon to US policy. Forthcoming news may make more sense interpreted in that light.</p></blockquote>
<p>And I think he&#8217;s quite right.  Notice that this general claim comes in all kinds of flavours.  You can go all-out-paranoid, as usual, but there are also subtler, and more charitable interpretations available if that&#8217;s how you prefer to interpret your clusterfucks.<br />
<span id="more-1291"></span><br />
Here&#8217;s what I mean.  You don&#8217;t have to think that anyone in particular in the Bush administration is sitting around, rubbing his hands together, and cackling about his evil plan to foment a civil war in Iraq.  You just need to notice that to intervene effectively in a dispute like the emerging Sunni-Shiite dispute (and don&#8217;t forget the Kurds!) in Iraq takes an extraordinary amount of energy, determination and single-mindedness.  That&#8217;s very hard to muster in a complex institutional setting, since complex institutional settings are typically characterized by drift and inertia.  The U.S. has a bunch of priorities and goals in Iraq, among which are goals which are better served if the U.S. can, as Henley points out, act as a sort of long-term stabilizer.  Mix together these various goals &#8211; some laudable, some not &#8211; throw in a bit of incompetence, arrogance, and ignorance, and &#8211; voila! &#8211; it&#8217;s not terribly likely that the U.S. will do whatever it takes to avert a <i>large-scale</i> civil war in the next few years.  So no one <i>needs</i> to be rubbing their hands together and planning anything.  All you need to get an even larger disaster is the fact that, since it <i>does</i> serve some U.S. goals if it gets to play the role of Indispensable Preventer of Civil Conflict For Ever and Ever Amen, that it&#8217;s unlikely the U.S. government is ever going to focus on the goal of really fixing things with the sort of seriousness required to fix anything.  </p>
<p>Aw hell, I feel like I&#8217;m not being terribly clear here &#8211; that I&#8217;m not really saying what I&#8217;m trying to say.  Must be out of practice.  But I&#8217;ll hit &#8220;publish&#8221; anyway.  Bash away in the comments.</p>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Hilzoy on permanent bases in Iraq</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2005/08/20/hilzoy-on-permanent-bases-in-iraq/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2005/08/20/hilzoy-on-permanent-bases-in-iraq/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Aug 2005 22:38:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1274</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2005/08/permanent_bases.html">Here.</a></p>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Andrew Arato on the Iraqi Constitution</title>
		<link>http://www.explananda.com/2005/08/17/andrew-arato-on-the-iraqi-constitution/</link>
		<comments>http://www.explananda.com/2005/08/17/andrew-arato-on-the-iraqi-constitution/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2005 16:41:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Follies of the occupation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Iraq War]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. foreign policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.explananda.com/?p=1266</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Interesting.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2005/08/iraq_qa_andrew.html">Interesting</a>.</p>
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